So far this year, I’ve seen 3 movies in a theatre: the new Planet of the Apes, Dune Part Two, in IMAX, and Anyone But You (there should be a new barely-clothed-beautiful-people-in-a-beautiful-warm-weather-locale movie every January). This is a huge drop off from what I would have normally seen by Memorial Day. It appears I’m not alone…
Last weekend’s Memorial Day box office was the lowest since 1995, without accounting for inflation, as Furiosa became the latest film to underperform expectations. This was bad news for theater owners, since the year was already pacing to be down 10% from 2023, which itself was $2 billion short of pre-Covid highs. While a part of this is due to last year’s writers’ and actors’ strikes negatively impacting release schedules, it’s clear that the business of cinema is in big trouble.
People have too many other options for entertainment that are much easier and create the feeling of constant discovery. The movies studios frantic efforts to adapt have them caught in a death spiral.
Reliance on intellectual property will eventually wane, but the worry is that the movie theaters themselves will crumble before they do.
For the last 100 years, “the movies” has been the central driving force of mainstream culture, equal parts driver and reflection of what we consider entertainment. Cinema won’t go away (just like we still have Opera houses, jazz clubs, and live theatre), but its place as societal benchmark is clearly on the decline, and it’s conceivable that—on a longer timeline—it becomes a pleasant but very occasional social activity (think bowling), and with it we lose the benefits of a dominant cultural throughline.
So here’s my run down of everything that will be lost if we lost the movies, along with the sides effects it would have on both humans and marketers.
Multi-Sensory Participation
The smell of popcorn. The feel of the durable carpet in the lobby under your feet. The blast of max power air conditioning when escaping a summer heat wave. The shock when the surround sound suddenly goes to full volume for the post-trailer, pre-movie Coke or Pepsi commercial. A trip to the movies is more than just sight, sound, and motion.
The whole experience is a story unto itself, which happens to include whatever happens on screen, immersive in itself. All that sensory stimulation not only enhances the story we consume, it makes us a participant in it. But even beyond the immediate moment, greater sense involvement drives stronger emotional response and creates deeper memories.
Human Side Effects: Early dementia, poorer social skills, higher anxiety
Marketing Side Effects: the ability to speak to humans with emotion, the loss of consumer expectation to be moved
Collective Experience
The Force Awakens is not even in my top 5 favorite Star Wars movies, but it is easily the most fun I’ve ever had in a movie theater because of the palpable anticipation of the crowd. On the other end of the spectrum, I can still remember the shiver that ran through my body at the very end of Spotlight, when they listed the all the cities and towns where the Catholic Church covered up sexual abuse. The small theater I was in was packed, and nobody moved until we were deep into the credits, all interconnected by the numbing power of the film.
Both of these movies, wildly different in their motivations and intents, were made better by the presence of an audience. And in both instances, I suspect my post-movie conversations were about the experience just as much as about the content on the screen. Sure, I could find someone who has seen Spotlight and discuss the movie at any point, but the specialness of the experience would play no part.
The irony is that despite social media’s ability to “personalize” content, it creates experiences that are wholly generic. My feed is unique to me but produces the same slow drip of dopamine that it does for everyone else.
As ever more of our time is shifting to individual consumption, we have less to share. “Did you see that TikTok…” is the worst conversation starter since dude’s started talking about their fantasy team with someone not in their league. (I’m guilty of both so don’t @ me)
Human Side Effects: fewer conversation topics, loss of friendships, contagious attention loss
Marketing Side Effects: reach, the beloved “tentpole” activation in anything other than sports, being trapped in the feed
Local Economy
Cinemas are often the anchor tenants in malls and small downtowns.
The Prime Effect: Amazon Prime Video (and all the streamers) not only encourages people to stay home and watch movies, but that staying home creates more reasons to order stuff on Amazon (or TikTok or Google or wherever). No trip home from the cinema means no quick stop to grab deodorant and coffee filters. It’s ok because I can still have both by tomorrow with next-day free shipping and throw in some generic dog treats, since I also skipped a visit to the local pet store.
The less often we get out of the house, the more of our spending goes to giant platforms and technology companies peddling convenience.
Human Side effects: ghost malls, fewer local jobs, Furiosa-style death and destruction
Marketing Side Effects: accelerated decline of brick & mortar retail, greater reliance on digital platforms, loss of pricing power, limited opportunities for experiential marketing
Intentional Consumption
The act of intentional consumption is rare. The whole world has become an algorithmic buffet from which we choose the least objectionable option. Which also means everything we watch or listen to feels free, even if we’re paying hundreds of aggregate dollars per month.
Not only do I not have to shell out any immediate dollars to watch Netflix, I don’t really have to commit my time to it, because I can also be scrolling Insta or playing a mobile game or doing my taxes at the same time.
Going to the movies means a commitment of time, money, and attention, and thus contains an innate respect for the people (artists) behind movies.
Human Side Effects: apathy to entertainment, loss of critical reasoning, extinction of art
Marketing Side Effects: loss of premium advertising environments, inability to create “luxury” equity through association with tastemakers/artists,
I guess this post turned into a bizarro pharma ad.
So, here’s my prescription: this summer, take the family, or a date, or just yourself to the cinema.
Important note: I am NOT a Martin Scorcese/Christopher Nolan purist who believes that CINEMA, and only CINEMA is the only way to watch video (In fact, I prefer TV shows and watched Oppenheimer for the first time on a plane). My fear for cinema comes not from a place of snobbery, but one of fear: there is something special about going to the movies, and if that magic taken away or gets reserved for only the rarest occasion, then we’ll lose something that unites us as humans.
Let me know in the comments if I’m just being paranoid or what else I may have missed about the decline of moviegoing.
The Weekly Prompt(s)
If box office attendance continues to decline, how can I replace the audience I lose from Cinema advertising?
How can my brand fulfill consumers need for even more special cinema experiences?
This Week’s Whimsies
This is highly related to the above but holy shit this framework of the ecosystem of culture by W. David Marx is perfect and really inspiring and I will be referring back to it often.
Obviously I think my analysis of the Star Wars hotel from last year should be the final word, but if you want a deeeeeeper dive that also asks big questions about the nature of live entertainment, the value of franchises, and much more, then skip the movies and watch this 4-hour YouTube video review which can also serve as a virtual stay at the hotel. (If you don’t have 4 hours, there’s some great insights for product marketing from minutes 5-15.)
A potential remedy for the overwhelming flood of CONTENT is the “Attention Cottage,” which this short piece describes.
If you’re thinking, “don’t worry, I can still get my movie fix from streaming,” I recommend reading this stats explainer called “The Broken Economics of Streaming Services.”
I used to be a glutton for going to theatrical movies. One comment you made is spot on. I can recall almost 50 years ago going to a comedy in a packed theater and remember laughing my head off with everyone else. A few months later I took a friend to see the same movie but there were only 4 of us in the theater. My friend and the other two people in the theatre hardly laughed at all. So, yes, the collective experience of watching a movie in a theater is a big bonus. Yes, almost 50 years ago…. Everything about life has practically changed. The once joyful experience of being in a crowded theater is now tarnished by patrons who have no cares or concerns about the people around them, and they basically act as if they are in their own living room. Which is where they probably watched the last 20 movies they saw…